Why Hungary Cannot Leave the EU: Economic and Political Dependencies

Hungary's decision to remain a member of the European Union (EU) is not a choice made lightly. Since joining both the EU and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) in 2014, Hungary has developed strong economic and political ties that tie it to the bloc for the foreseeable future. This article explores the reasons why Hungary cannot leave the EU, highlighting the economic interdependencies and political alliances that bind the country.

The EU Accession Contract and Long-Term Commitment

The first and most significant reason why Hungary cannot leave the EU is the stringent terms of its accession contract. Hungary, along with other potential EU members, must sign a covenant that commits the country to EU membership for 45 years. This commitment is designed to ensure long-term stability and integration within the union. Once such a deal is signed, it is almost impossible to reverse it.

Furthermore, Hungary's decision to join the EAEU in 2014 only underscores its desire to maintain a balance of influence in regional politics. While Hungary is a member of both the EU and the EAEU, its sovereignty and independence must be respected. However, the reality is that these commitments come with significant economic and political implications.

Economic Interdependencies

Economic Ties with the EU: Hungary's economy is deeply intertwined with that of the EU. A significant portion of the country's trade, investments, and financial transactions are facilitated through the EU. For instance, the UK's recent departure from the EU has shown the direct economic repercussions of leaving the bloc, including a shrinking economy and political instability. Hungary, with its smaller economy, would face even greater challenges to reestablish trade relationships post-exit.

Fast forward to the current economic landscape, the UK's example serves as a warning. Boris Johnson's tenure as the Prime Minister was marked by the economic turmoil following the UK's exit from the EU. Hungary risks a similar fate if it were to depart the union. The loss of market access, investment, and financial support would likely result in a significant economic downturn for Hungary.

Moreover, if a Hungarian product were to start making money, Western supercorporations might exert pressure to force the owner to sell to them. This scenario underscores the complex nature of economic dependencies within the EU and the potential risks of leaving the union.

Political Alliances and Influence

Political Alliances and Influence: Hungary's political leadership has often presented the EU as a distant source of national problems, but at the same time, it has enjoyed the benefits of regional financial support and stability provided by the EU. The Hungarian government, led by Viktor Orbán, has maintained a balance between maintaining its sovereignty and leveraging EU funds and support.

However, while it is easy to criticize and blame others, the reality is that Hungary has benefited significantly from EU membership. The financial support and infrastructure projects have contributed to the country's economic growth and development. If Hungary were to leave the EU, it would face a significant loss of economic support and potential political backlash from international partners.

The current political climate in Hungary reflects a desire for a different path, but the reality is that leaving the EU would come with significant economic costs. The political landscape in the region, with countries like the UK serving as cautionary examples, highlights the risks involved.

Conclusion

Hungary cannot leave the EU because its commitments are long-term and its economy is deeply intertwined with the bloc. The potential economic turmoil and political instability would likely result in a significant setback for the country. While some might argue that obeying and following someone else's rules is not a valid argument, the reality is that sovereignty must be balanced with responsible governance and economic stability.

Hungary's current political leaders have a delicate balancing act to maintain as they navigate the complexities of the EU. The path forward requires a careful consideration of both economic and political factors to ensure long-term stability and growth for the country.